The End of Suburbia
Film Review & Commentary by Michael Pilarski

The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream is a recent film being shown around the USA. It has been shown twice in Bellingham, Washington lately. 200 people attended the first showing and 40 people the second of which I was in the audience on December 3, 2004.

It is hard to come away from the film without a sense of the impending collapse of the American Empire. Peak oil is explained quite clearly and many of the expected dire consequences. Dire that is for the consumptive style of life that much of "Western Civilization" has gotten used to.

Here are a few figures from Geographica, The Complete Illustrated Atlas of the World, 2002 edition.

GNP per capita (Some of the highest and lowest)

It is estimated that half of the world lives on $2 a day or less. About 3 billion people, now termed the super poor.

Now bear in mind that these are figures of measurable economic exchange. In the poorest ranking of countries, most of the people make their own homes, grow their own food, barter and have a local social net that does much of the caretaking and service needs. These are not accounted for in cash transactions and if they were, their totals would compare somewhat better to industrialized countries.

However, if there was a collapse of global civilization it is precisely the rural people in these poorest countries who have the best chance of surviving. They are the least dependent on petroleum or centralized energy, communication and food systems. They are more self-reliant and decentralized.

In the film The End of Suburbia, a case was made that Peak Oil happened in the United States in the early 1970's and that Peak Oil for the whole world has probably just occurred (2004) or soon will do so. Some of their predictions for the USA in the era following Peak Oil are: a large rise in gasoline prices and energy price and reduced availability. Recessions followed by a big depression. Reduced availability of goods and lowered standard of living. In the process many people will look for someone to blame. Social and political upheavels. Likely election of fascists/maniacs/military strongmen who would subdue domestic unrest and go into the world militarily to keep supply lines open. Afghanistan and Iraq are just the beginning of more US attacks on oil countries. The roads and cars that keep the suburbs connected to jobs, shopping, etc will become increasingly difficult to maintain. The US suburbs will have to be remodeled around local economies or fall into dereliction.

These are plausible scenarios in my opinion. I can think of better scenarios and worse ones.

One of my worst case scenarios is a fascist one-world government where all the populations in all the countries are tightly controlled and watched. Dissent stifled, opposition killed. A robot, slave people with consciousness repressed. It appears that there are people in the world who have this scenario as their goal.

I doubt they will be able to achieve this. There are massive forces afoot within humanity and within the planet and within the solar system itself.

Human societies over the past 3,000+ years of history have seen an enormous amount of experimentation. There are scattered reports of matriarchal, egalitarian, democratic cultures and people. But for the most part there have been horrendous oppressions, invasions, pogroms, holocausts, slaughters, witch-hunts, fascism, slavery, genocide and general repression of peasants, indigenous peoples, women and minorities. In the midst of all this love springs eternal and so does spirit. Throughout all this there have been humans who commune with the divine. And today the oppressions and the killings still go on and so does love and the desire for justice and freedom. Many of us in the USA hope that the killings and oppression won't happen here. But they have already been happening, it is just not common in the white middle classes in the US. At least, not yet. One of the books referred to in the movie has part of the subtitle of "Fascism at the End of Oil". There are pro-fascism forces in the US and large popular pro-democracy resistance to it.

It is estimated that about 20% of the US population are "cultural creatives" helping create positive alternatives. If so, where does that leave the other 80%? 10% to 20% of them are the already marginalized people. Mainly colored people, immigrants, homeless, indigenous, poor people of all descriptions. Most of them know their bread ain't buttered by the rich and powerful. By & large they don't like the government and most don't vote.

There is the large lower part of the working class/middle class perhaps 30%. Perhaps another 10% in the upper middle class. The top 5% of the US population in wealth own most of the country. The top 1% control most of the US economic and political power. How many people in the US support the corporate/government structure? How many people support fascism now? How many people does it take for fascism to exist? Where is the trend going to go? It will be determined by the actions of millions and tens of millions of US people.

So, there are conflicting forces within the US population.

A close perusal of the Geographica Atlas (or of current world affairs) will show that a significant number (around 50%) of the world's nation-states have internal struggles. Ethnic divisions, religious, political, etc. These struggles range from all out civil war to guerilla warfare to general tension and unrest. At any one time there can be dozens of hot spots.

Plus, in the majority of the countries in the world, national governments are repressive towards their own peoples and there are forces for freedom in all of them. There is a lot of turbulencewithin many countries.

Christopher Mare of Village Design Institute has written a paper which traces the history of civilization back to the first city-states and their warring/conquering rulers. Empire after empire has risen and fallen. Empires with the most advanced weaponry swallow other empires and they gradually get larger. At this time there are relatively few super-powers: the USA, European Economic Union, Japan, Russia, and China. These big empires are still jockying for power. If they get us into a nuclear world war they could conceivably cause the end of this civilization and put us back into the pre-industrial era or the stone age or even extinction. This is certainly the worst scenario as far as human life on this planet is concerned.

How much of the rest of the world wants to keep shipping their resources and products to the USA and wants the US to be the world's policeman and empire enforcement?

So we have these conflicts within each nation and between empires. These will make it difficult to set up a one-world government.

There are also possible changes within the Earth itself. These scenarios have various levels of consequence for humans.

• General depletion of the soil, forests, fisheries, water, etc. Less and less resources for more and more humans.
• New wide-scale diseases and plagues. Nature could invent them and humans are bioengineering diseases for warfare.
• Bioengineered plants, insects or microbes could get out of control and wreak havoc on people or important parts of the biosphere.
• Global climate change. More extreme weather, lessened food crops, bigger storms, ocean rising.
• A new glacial age. See John A. Hamacker theories and the movie "The Day After Tomorrow".
• Earth changes. More and bigger earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Sudden changes in the earth's crusts. Large sections of land going under the ocean.
• A super volcano eruption such as Yellowstone could cause a long cold dark period (like a nuclear winter).
• A large asteroid could hit Earth. In the past they have caused some of the largest extinction events.

The sun has recently sent out some of the largest recorded sunspots and EMF waves. These disrupted satellites, communication equipment and electrical transmission systems. There are other reported changes happening in the solar system such as increased brightness of planets. If the sun increased emissions substantially it could bring much of technology to a halt and alter the biosphere.

These are a few scenarios I know of that would alter the pathway of humanity away from increased globalization and centralization of power.

Humanity certainly does not a tolerable future unless we reverse the current despoilation of the Earth's resources. Soil, food, water, fiber, trees, oxygen, biomass, biosphere, biodiversity. These have all been going downhill for at least the last 4,000 years due to human activities. Some humans seem to think we can live without these things, but there is hell to pay in the not too distant future if we don't turn things around. Of all the interdisplinary design systems in the world today that I know of, permaculture is the best at creating systems that will heal the earth and at the same time meet human needs. Humanity badly needs what permaculture has to offer.

So, if we believe The End of Suburbia is right, then what do we do? How much time do we have till the shit hits the fan? No one knows. What can we do to prepare? How can we help our communities prepare? How can we help society to prepare?

The more people who do prepare and the more people who act rationally (reduce consumption, are peaceful and do things to heal the earth) the better we can weather the withdrawal from fossil fuels.

Wouldn't it be nice if they showed the movie The End of Suburbia to everyone in the USA and there was a mass movement to reduce consumption, live more peacefully and to heal the Earth and we could all live happily ever after. . . Unfortunately I don't think this will happen. I imagine that most US people will continue to be influenced by the media conglomerates, continue to be misinformed and keep their heads stuck in the sand. Denial is widespread. I imagine that most Americans will have to be dragged kicking and screaming away from their consumptive lifestyles. As the pie gets smaller there will be larger and larger numbers of poor and marginalized people. There will be a lot of desperation. Crime rates will rise. There will be demands for fascism by the the more well-endowed to keep their share of the shrinking pie.

As the petroleum era wanes, the cultural creatives are on the move. Farmer's markets, small organic farmers, food gardening are becoming more popular. Neighborhood associations will form and grow. Local organizations are springing up like weeds after a wildfire. Natural building, local materials, biodeisel, alternative energy, fair trade, environmental groups, natural healing, festivals, gatherings, progressive political groups, etcetera. Almost everyone in the permaculture movement is involved in a number of these groups (formal and informal).

There is hope that as the petroleum, global-domination juggernaut's power wanes that local people's progressive organizations will gradually take its place. Would it be so! Hoh! There is also the possibility that the changeover could be a bloody affair with the exploiters trying to wipe out the progressive opposition. Permaculturists with their ethics of "care of the people" and "care of the planet" would likely be targeted out for repression. Knowing this, how do we live our lives? Do we hide our lights under a bushel basket and try to stay beneath the radar? Or do we proclaim our vision to the world and do all in our power to create a positive future?

Gary Snyder was the keynote speaker at Tilth organic agriculture's 10th anniversary in 1984 that I organized. Gary reminded us that "It is not who wins or loses that matters, but how we play the game." If we are an eternal being with multiple reincarnations, as some of us believe; and if loving, caring kindness improves our lot in future lives and/or in the hereafter, then Gary's advice is well put and we should all strive to leave the Earth a better place than we found it.

Paraphrasing John F. Kennedy. "It's not what the planet can do for you, but what you can do for the planet". Our allegiance is not to a nation-state, or to a government, but to all of humanity and to all life on Earth. May all humans see freedom and live in harmony with the natural world and all the other species of life we share this beautiful planet with.

Grow your gardens . . .
Plant seeds and trees . . .
Help the earth be fruitful . . .
Defend wildness in the landscape and in human spirit . . .
May your life be satisfying . . .
May you know love . . .

The End of Suburbia and this article so far have focused on the problems. The film does offer a few ideas on solutions, but not much.

So where are the solutions?
What are the solutions?
Who has knowledge of these solutions?

The solutions are known to a large part. They are held in the collectivity of all of humanity. No one country or culture has all the answers, but between us we do. The peoples of the world to communicate about these solutions and implement them. Permaculture offers a set of principles and a design process as well as many practical strategies and techniques. Permaculture is particularly good at growing food and earth-care. It validates and strengthens traditional methods. It has a role to play in visioning and building a better world.

On the world scene of progressive social movements one of the best is the World Social Forum. WSF is the world's largest coalition of people's movements. The first three were held in Porto Alegro, Brazil and the 4th was held in India. 140,000 people from all over the world attended the 2003 WSF (the 3rd). The 5th will be held at Porto Alegro from January 26-31, 2005.

The Forum's Charter of Principles reads: "The World Social Forum is an open meeting place for reflective thinking, democratic debate of ideas, formulation of proposals, free exchange of experiences and interlinking for effective action, by groups and movements of civil society that are opposed to neo-liberalism, and are committed to building a planetary society directed towards fruitful relationships among humankind and between it and the Earth".

You can check the WSF on the internet. Their official website is www.forumsocialmundial.org.br. Also there is a film available called "Hope Will Win Over Fear: The World Social Forums". The film is available on DVD for $10. 1 hour 10 minutes. Brazilian, subtitled in English. www.hopewillwinoverfear.org.

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